Before the 2024 U.S. election, some African leaders privately rooted for the transactional, business-friendly environment that they envisioned under U.S. President Donald Trump in a second term. They expected that they would be able to strike deals without the United States applying double standards about a rules-based international order.

Trump has yet to outline any specific foreign policy toward Africa as a whole, even after 100 days in office. But many of his administration’s executive orders have had devastating ripple effects on the continent. The 90-day pause on foreign aid (with an exception granted to Egypt) and the gutting of the U.S. Agency for International Development prompted countries such as Nigeria to allocate emergency funds for medicines.

Meanwhile, Trump moved quickly on singling out South Africa for sanctions. An executive order that he signed last month offered refugee status to Afrikaners—descendants of primarily Dutch settlers—and cut aid to the country over its new land law, which aims to address persistent inequalities. (Some in Trump’s inner circle, including advisor Elon Musk, spent years living in apartheid South Africa.)

Though South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has attempted to mend relations with Trump, other members of his African National Congress party are less enthusiastic. The country looks to be set on a collision course with the United States that will not only limit South Africa’s economic growth, but also that of its regional neighbors.

Some countries have been proactive in attempts to secure business and security deals. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has proposed a minerals-for-security agreement to help fight Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. Countries such as Somalia that also fear Trump’s cuts might look to ink similar deals.

But a U.S. trade war with China could indirectly raise costs for African economies that rely more significantly on trade with Beijing. That—coupled with a precarious future for the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a preferential trade agreement—have prompted some nations to seek to diversify away from the United States. South Africa, for example, has already said that it will intensify seeking new alliances.

Trump’s broader trajectory will likely reaffirm Africa’s trade with U.S. adversaries, especially China. But some observers say that if African leaders implement the right fiscal policies, then their economies could emerge less reliant on the United States in Trump’s second term.