Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, a boon for Netanyahu’s fractured standing back home. The two leaders meet against the backdrop of critically important yet shaky cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon. Having pushed the parties to reach agreement on the cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza and having succeeded in getting an extension for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Trump now owns them both, and they are his to manage and oversee.

While the atmosphere of the visit will almost certainly be positive, it will mask a relationship between two leaders who are not terribly fond of one another and who certainly don’t trust each other. Both recall the contretemps that surrounded the last months of Trump’s first term as president. Netanyahu, urged on by the then-U.S. ambassador, considered annexing parts of the West Bank, believing that was consistent with Trump’s so-called deal of the century. But Trump wanted nothing of it, especially in the run-up to his reelection campaign. To add to the problem, Trump was later angered by Netanyahu’s congratulatory call to Joe Biden after he won the 2020 U.S. presidential election and his unwillingness to embrace Trump’s false narrative of a stolen vote.

Mistrust aside, both leaders need each other for the moment and have a stake in a good meeting. Trump, who styles himself as the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history, ran on a platform of unswerving support for Israel. Among his first decisions as president was the removal of  sanctions that Biden had imposed on extreme Israeli settlers and releasing the shipment of heavy bombs that Biden had paused.

For his part, Netanyahu continues to face pressure from all sides: on trial and now testifying in his ongoing corruption case; pressed by his right-wing coalition to resume the war in Gaza; faced with a demand from the coalition’s religious parties to exempt their constituents from military service; and pressured by the hostages’ families to prioritize their release. The visit to the White House, while not a solution to Netanyahu’s travails, will provide a talking point in the prime minister’s campaign to demonstrate his indispensability.

Still, all is not well in the world of Trump and Netanyahu. Caught between the need to preserve his right-wing coalition and Trump’s desire to see the cease-fire and hostage deal implemented, Netanyahu faces the seemingly impossible task of squaring the circle. Phase two of the agreement compels Hamas to release all remaining hostages; in return, the Israel Defense Forces would withdraw from Gaza and end the war. One right-wing party has already withdrawn from the coalition in protest of the Knesset approving the deal, and another has threatened to bring it down if Netanyahu doesn’t resume the war after the deal’s first phase. It’s unclear how Netanyahu will navigate his way out of this. He will play for time, reminding his coalition that the agreement says the cease-fire will continue if negotiations on phase two, due to begin on Feb. 4, continue. And he’ll remind Trump about a letter of assurance he allegedly has from Biden—and apparently endorsed by the Trump administration—that he can continue the war to deny Hamas a political win. Netanyahu may seek Trump’s assent to continue the fighting for an agreed period.

Trump has already made it clear that he wants to end wars, not start or continue them. Thus, he is unlikely to give Netanyahu much wiggle room. One con man has an intuitive understanding of the other, so there will be no blank checks. Indeed, it won’t take much for Trump to lose patience with Netanyahu.

Ending the war in Gaza is important for Trump for another reason. He seeks to revive the prospect of a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement. Saudi Arabia’s price tag for normalization with Israel has increased substantially since Oct. 7, 2023, particularly in Palestinian coin. Its demand that Israel commit to a political horizon leading to a two-state solution might be too much for Netanyahu.

Iran is the other issue on which Trump and Netanyahu might clash. Netanyahu has spoken openly about his hope that Americans will support attacking the Iranian nuclear program. While Trump has no love lost for the Iranians and seems ready to increase his maximum pressure campaign, it is not certain that he wants to initiate a war when his domestic and foreign policies are just now unfolding. Trump has also ambiguously hinted that his only concern is Iran’s nuclear program, suggesting he may be ready for diplomacy rather than force. A diplomatic off-ramp with Iran will suit Saudi and Gulf interests, as well.

There are, thus, few issues where instant agreement between Trump and Netanyahu is likely. The 10-year U.S.-Israeli memorandum of understanding on military assistance will expire in 2028, and Netanyahu may raise that during the meeting. Trump can readily promise to ensure Israel has the means to defend itself, but his budget-cutting onslaught suggests he will balk at new commitments or perhaps use them as a source of leverage. He will surely want the cease-fire and hostage agreement to continue into its second phase, and thus is likely to temper Netanyahu’s enthusiasm for continuing the war.

Netanyahu visits Washington in a much weaker position than Trump, and if there is one thing we can say with confidence about Trump, it’s that he will take advantage of that. Trump is unlikely to restrict or condition U.S. military assistance to Israel—just as Biden refrained from doing so.

But Trump’s unpredictability should concern Netanyahu. Trump is the Republican Party now, and Netanyahu cannot turn to his familiar tactic of reaching over a U.S. president’s head for congressional support. Netanyahu will go home with good optics but relatively empty pockets, either in material or commitments.

However, the visit will not end with blood on the floor. Neither leader wants an early confrontation. But behind closed doors, the message will be clear: The United States of Donald Trump is the senior partner in this relationship, and Israel would be well advised not to cross the president. Whether the “Trump effect” about which one hears from many in Israel these days will have its desired impact on the beleaguered but still risk-ready Israeli prime minister remains to be seen.