Negotiating tactic or not, Trump’s Gaza plan has already done irreparable damage
Expert comment
jon.wallace
7 February 2025
The proposal for a US takeover of Gaza would disrupt almost every foreign policy objective the new US administration has in the Middle East.
President Donald Trump has started a new reality in the Middle East, regardless of what comes next. Did he also torpedo the hostage deal in Gaza? Possibly. What other outcome should people expect if proposed US policy on the territory has led to warnings against ethnic cleansing by the UN Secretary General and would effectively end the US commitment to the two-state solution?
Israel’s military has already been ordered to prepare plans to allow Palestinians to exit Gaza. That follows the US president saying the US would take over the Gaza Strip and ‘do a job with it too’.
‘We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site,’ he said, explaining that America would take ‘a long-term ownership position’ to turn it into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East’.
The White House later dialled back some aspects of his proposal, saying the US is not offering a commitment to rebuild Gaza or send troops. But Trump later doubled down on his position, saying the strip would be handed over to the US by Israel. This signals that Israel has no intention of leaving Gaza. That, in turn, provides a pretext for Hamas to renege on implementing the remaining phases of the deal and resuming the fight.
Nobody could be blamed for branding this plan a second Balfour Declaration, or perhaps a second Nakba. Besides the indifference the plan shows to Palestinians’ identity and dignity, Trump seemed to ignore that his guest at the unveiling of the plan, Benjamin Netanyahu, is responsible for turning Gaza into a ‘demolition site’.
If Trump’s eye-popping intervention was a bargaining tactic, as some searching for logic in the proposal claim, it has already failed. Enormous damage has been done to the fragile peace process and US prestige. More practically, the plan stands in the way of every policy objective the Trump administration claims to have in the Middle East.
Lifeline for Netanyahu
Before his meeting with Netanyahu, Mr Trump was already helping the cause of Israel’s religious far right, stressing that he had ‘no guarantees’ the current ceasefire deal in Gaza would survive.
In so doing, he threw a lifeline that may save Mr Netanyahu’s political career. By effectively giving up America’s role as a guarantor of the ceasefire, together with Egypt and Qatar, he has cleared the way for Israel’s prime minister to shoot down the fragile agreement and keep his government alive (Netanyahu has consistently called the ceasefire ‘temporary’).
With Trump’s plan announced, Netanyahu can pitch himself to his far right devotees as the only Israeli political figure who can get the US president to make their vision for the Middle East a reality.
That vision, to bury peace with Palestinians once and for all, is boosted by Trump’s Gaza plan. Instead of removing illegal Israeli settlers to pave the way to a Palestinian state, displacing Palestinians from Gaza would put an end to Palestinian statehood – an objective Netanyahu doesn’t care to hide.
A US takeover of the Strip could also form part of a bigger bargain to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank – as much of Israel’s far right demands. That would previously have been an unimaginable turn in US policy. Following the Trump-Netanyahu summit, it has to be seen as a real possibility – all bets are off now.
Arab outrage
In President Trump’s mind, Gaza is perhaps a prime Mediterranean location for a real-estate bonanza. It is no surprise that this is how a former property developer thinks.
But for neighbouring countries, this is a life-or-death matter. Egypt and Jordan face existential threats from Trump’s proposal: displacing Palestinians into their countries would destabilize their regimes, fuel extremism and turn their territories into launchpads for Palestinian attacks on Israel. Their peace treaties with Israel would effectively be thrown into the abyss.
This is a major flaw even on ‘America First’ terms: displacing Gazans twice (most Gazans were initially forced to leave their homes in Israel and the West Bank) is the recipe for Western-friendly Arab regimes to disintegrate.
Egypt has already signalled that Israeli moves to push out Palestinians would amount to the end of their peace treaty. This should not be taken as a bluff this time. In a rare moment, Egyptian government-run media, activists, academics, social media and even staunch rivals the Muslim Brotherhood are closing ranks behind the government of President Fatah El-Sisi.
In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood is a significant power in the parliament after the September elections, and the majority of the population is of Palestinian origin. Were Palestinians to be expelled from Gaza the government in Amman would be in danger of total collapse.
Despite being cautious not to antagonize Trump early on in his presidency, the Gulf States also have no appetite for the president’s plan. Rather they are bewildered by his apparent seriousness and the severe threat to their security this proposal poses. The threat is both internal and external – a US takeover of Palestinian land would renew the legitimacy of Iran’s proxies across the region, if not trigger a regional war.
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