The oil and financial sanctions applied by the American governments, from Barack Obama to date, have no sense from any point of view, be this principle-political-democratic, supply, anti-corruption, or geopolitical.
From the beginism, the sanctions were used by the Trump I government to change the Venezuelan government, so that “it did not rule out any means to resolve the case of Venezuela.” Publicly calling “Mr. President ”to Juan Guaidó. But the Venezuelan government did not change. Joe Biden’s approach was less beginner, he did not try to change the president but his policies. He did not succeed either. Rather, he did the licenses for hydrocarbons in exchange for the Venezuelan government to yield under certain political and electoral conditions, not all. Nor did he drill his mission, the government of Venezuela benefited. The history of 180 cases of sanctions in the world during the last 100 years shows that governments have only changed in seven sanctioned countries.
From the point of view of the hydrocarbons supply of the West, it is obvious that, both the United States and Europe need Venezuelan oil. President Trump II, recently elected, declared otherwise. But that is only a negotiation posture, although then it hardens it with the suspension of Chevrón’s license. Let’s see: The United States consumes almost 20 MMBD and only produces 13 MMBD. And it must be considered that, not only needs to import almost 7 MMBD, but that a good part of what it produces comes from fracking, but it has a production cost between US $ 30 and 50 /B, which grows in more complex geological conditions or less infrastructure. The price per liter of gasoline at service stations in the United States is around US $ 1.8. While the cost of oil production in Venezuela is around US $ 15 /b. The aspect of where oil comes and who produces it is related to transparency and the fight against corruption because there is no more transparent oil than that produced under a license regime. That transparency would be lost if Venezuela has to sell again for “the green roads” and the crypto.
In the case of Europe, the need to import hydrocarbons is much more accentuated because it depended too much on Russia, today sanctioned by the European Union given the invasion of Ukraine. This situation is aggravated by the withdrawal of US support to Ukraine and Europe to defend it, and for the reaction of said union to support the invaded country, both by the principle of self -determination, because it knows that, after taking from Ukraine by Russia, the invasions of the bear against Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Latvia, Lastya, Lastya If not Poland too. Situation that Viktor Orban would take the opportunity to request the reinstatement of Hungary to the heiress of the Soviet Union.
The need of the West of being able to have a safe supply is combined with the geopolitical aspect of the matter. It makes no sense for the United States or Europe to distance themselves from Venezuela through sanctions if the G7 countries only have hydrocarbon reserves proven for about seven more years, to the current production rate. Not to mention if technological development, now exposed by artificial intelligence, accelerates the economic growth of the world, and energy consumption, especially in technological powers. For its part, the United States only has about 13 years of reservations to the current production rhythm. The link of the theme supply with the geopolitical is evidenced that every time a power has sanctioned a country, other countries, including allies of the sanctioner, fill the void that leaves the power. For example, hotels in Cuba are owned by Mexican, Spanish and Canadian companies, United States allied countries, and the Cuban dictatorship is still standing. In the case of an alleged new wave of sanctions from the United States against Venezuela, all it would be that this void is filled by its allies and their sworn enemies, such as Russia, China and Iran. As it has been happening.
Trump believes that relationships with Putin, XI, Kim and Jamenei can rebuild markets or advantages against Russia, China and Iran, is an illusion. It is clear that the first two are determined to expand their respective imperial areas, while the United States, rather, is replicated. In particular, delivering the United States its area of influence in Europe, leaving this continent to the mercy of Russia, and the Far East to the Merced of China. The only exception to the latter would be the maintenance of US relations with South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Philippines and Australia. Taiwan’s future is not clear since China can take the abandonment of Ukraine in the United States as the message he was looking for in the outcome of the Russian invasion or could “agree” with Trump “prolong” the current situation and dedicate resources to the development of Siberia in agreement with Russia, “for now.” On the other hand, any “agreement” with Iran is useless for his religious hatred against Satan and Israel.
The balance of these four aspects of the issue leads me to conclude that it is most likely that the Trump government revishes the oil licenses so that the NM government increases hydrocarbons exports to the West, in particular, to the United States. Today’s Trump is much more a pragmatic, Elon Musk type, than a democratic principle, Frame Rubio type. Therefore, it can be assumed that the suspension of licenses to Venezuela is due to a gesture to achieve two things: first: threaten to take advantage of the counterpart, according to Trump himself in his book with Tony Schwartz, The art of negotiation1987: “The worst thing that can happen to one in a business is to have a desperate need to do so. When this occurs, the opponent sniffs the blood, and you can take out dead. It is best to negotiate from a position of strength, … the one that contains an advantage … unfortunately, this is not always given from the beginning, so many times the advantage demands imagination and saleswoman lip … In 1974, to convince the municipality of the convenience of authorizing my purchase agreement of the Commodore Hotel on 42nd Street, I persuaded the owners to announce the closure of the establishment. Once this public announcement was made, I had no qualms about pointing to the … Municipal Council the catastrophe that would be the closure of a hotel for the area of the Grand Central station and for the entire city. ” Page 51.
In this case, to declare that it did not need Venezuelan oil and then cancel the license would have been to achieve better conditions of the Venezuelan government so that companies eventually authorized by the US government produce more hydrocarbons. Second, the cancellation (I think temporarily) of the license would seek not to lose the votes of beginner radical deputies in the approval of the Federal Government budget. As of today, Thursday, March 13, this discussion begins in the American Congress. Approved this budget, it is likely to appear a new version of “Trump Style” licenses.
For its part, the NM Government has been very sparse in its comments on the suspension of the Chevron license and, rather, in its television network of 11 03 2025, it concentrated on showing various aspects of the production chain of the Venezuelan oil industry, oriented to project an image that the country can maintain and grow in its production and exports of hydrocarbons, inviting, repeatedly inviting, repeatedly, national and international entrepreneurs to invest and export hydrocarbons and other items.
@joseagilyepes
