Understanding what Trump and Maduro played in this recent meeting, the first in many years, between representatives of the US and Venezuela governments, is not easy. Let’s approach by a review of the events that occurred and the signs deployed.
Before Trump’s investiture there was a threat tournament against Maduro. They came from the hard wing and Maduro took them seriously, adopting forecasts. According to the White House spokeswoman, R. Grenell did not come to negotiate, he only brought two very clear demands: that Maduro would accept the repatriation of the deportees and let all the American Americans release. Rick Scott mentioned these two demands, but added that they also contemplated the definition of a third country where Maduro and D. Cabello should leave. While this was happening, Miraflores said nothing. He limited himself to waiting for the visitor and here is the first big difference in the cases of Petro and Maduro. With Petro a plane with deportees was sent that the Colombian president in a nationalist outburst rejected and issued a public proclamation, strident and challenger. He paid the consequences. In the case of Venezuela, a sent to talk about the terms under which these flights would be made first. With Colombia it was a fact, undoubtedly disrespectful and unconsultant, with Venezuela a calculated and agreed movement with Caracas. Mutism pays off.
Trump has so far said what he will do with Putin, with Zelensky, with Panama, Mexico, Canada, Greenland, the European Union, Israel and the rest of the Middle East. This weekend he dispatched American troops to Somalía. But in the Venezuelan case it has only limited itself to general statements and their feelings towards Venezuela, Maduro and the Venezuelan people. Everything indicates that there is no decision on what to do and that the moderate and hawks struggle to impose their theses: that of leaving Maduro, but pressing it versus the one that argues that it is best to get it out soon. For this indefinition it could be interpreted that in the difference in behavior with Petro it had to see the intention of not stimulating an angry and challenging response from an actor with which the northern government does not know exactly what to do, thus avoiding a furious reaction of the government Venezuelan that gave rise to a climb of tensions, which forced the US to take drastic measures, made for now not desired by them.
The envoy is a personal emissary of Trump, he gives him accounts to him, not M. Rubio. It is a direct diplomatic action of the American president, in recognition of this character the Venezuelan Chancellor and the president of the AN and in response to those who send it, he serves it personally mature at the headquarters of the Government. An interesting signal is that by difference of minutes the US Air Force plane that brought R. Grenell, shared entrance with a Russian Air Force plane. This detail remembers a similar fact when Anastasio Somoza threatened to invade Costa Rica, a country without army. The response to that threat was the “visit” to Costa Rica of two Venezuelan Air Force planes that spent several days there. Somoza understood the message. The third signal of importance, and no less relevant, is that the visit occurs prior to Rubio’s tour and just before the renewal day of the license to Chevron, a signal of the expected behavior. Maduro delivers part of the prisoners, but maintains some. Also a manifest sign of the expected reciprocity.
Why Grenelll and not blond. First because Rubio is a declared enemy of Maduro and Trump, for now, he seeks to avoid a direct confrontation and although his narrative presented it as an “ultimatum”, the signal game indicated something else. Grenelll, for belonging to the negotiating wing and when coinciding with the interests of the oil companies, is more tragable for Maduro.
Let’s see the results now. Maduro obtained what he wanted: a direct channel with Trump, diplomatic treatment and the renewal of the license, in addition to baffling and frustrating the hard opposition forces. He also bought time to intensify diplomatic and lobby actions before Trump. This, on the other hand, partially obtained what he said to want: the acceptance by Venezuela of the repatriation of the migrants who are deported, but only obtained part of the prisonerswhich, however, can exhibit as a triumph against your nation and, finally, a waiting compass to decide what to do in definitive with a perceived neighbor as supra uncomfortable and that cannot be removed at will. The Venezuelan situation is complicated and complex, there will be no non -cost solution for the parties involved. Both know that success does not depend on the stridency of media campaigns or on nationalist rhetoric, not only to have objectives, but on how to do it. The two know that they are the precise and studied actions as a surgeon, which can give the triumph.
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