Q3: What equipment is going to Ukraine?
A3: The United States provides Ukraine with the full spectrum of equipment that a military needs. PDA packages run the gamut from heavy weapons (e.g., tanks) to munitions (e.g., artillery shells and air defense missiles) to supplies (e.g., medical equipment and cold-weather gear). Recent packages appear to provide the monthly production of equipment that is in short supply in the United States, like artillery shells, air defense systems, and anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin.
USAI packages focus on weapons and heavy equipment. Of note, around a dozen HIMARS to boost Ukrainian firepower and a dozen National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for air defense were contracted in 2022 and will soon appear on the battlefield.
Although the discussion of military aid generally focuses on major weapons, the key is quantity, not particular systems. In addition to weapons, militaries in combat need munitions of all sorts, from small arms to mortars to artillery, and a lot of ordinary supplies like trucks, night-vision goggles, and spare parts. The key, therefore, is the size of the flow and not whether that flow includes particular systems.
The focus on equipment should not obscure the “soft” support—training and intelligence data, for example—that the United States provides. Although such support cannot be counted in the same way that equipment can, it has been critical in building Ukraine’s military capabilities. Training encompasses not just the operation of donated Western equipment but also support for individuals and units. Intelligence information has enabled Ukraine to understand the strategic picture better (i.e., what Russia is doing and intends to do) and the tactical level (i.e., where Ukraine should fire its long-range munitions). Elimination of these would have hurt Ukraine’s military effort in ways that are hard to predict. The Europeans are providing some of this themselves and might replace some lost U.S. support, but the United States has capabilities that the Europeans do not and a scale of capabilities that is hard to replace.
Q4: Could the Trump administration stop the shipment of military aid?
A4: Yes, at least in part. Drawdown equipment is still being shipped. The Trump administration could direct that shipments cease despite announcements by the previous administration. More difficult would be stopping shipments of newly produced weapons from contracts Ukraine signed with the defense industry, though with funds provided by the United States. Legally, those belong to Ukraine. However, the Trump administration may be able to divert deliveries to U.S. forces using Title I of the Defense Production Act or other emergency authorities, citing national requirements. Although that claim would be a stretch, the Trump administration has not hesitated to use emergency authorities for its political goals.
Q5: If U.S. military aid ends, what other military aid will Ukraine receive?
A5: The United States is not the only equipment supplier to Ukraine. As calculated by Germany’s Kiel Institute, European military aid for Ukraine has been comparable to that of the United States, at roughly $1.8 billion per month. European aid was especially critical in late 2023 and early 2024 when the United States ran out of funds while Congress debated the next aid package. The European Union also approved using frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s military needs. The bad news is that the Europeans are already supplying as much as they can, given the deteriorated state of their defense industry. Further, if the United States ceases aid, many European countries will also likely scale back.
