We are now in the official campaign period, and already it is clear that the political game is playing out in not quite the usual way. The ethnic voting syndrome is still with us, and while this may conceivably not be the altogether dominant force it once was, it is still an issue to be reckoned with, as the last local government elections demonstrated.
When he embarked on his new term in 2020, President Irfaan Ali coined his ‘One Guyana’ slogan with the intention in mind of bypassing the old PNCR and its affiliates, and appealing directly to African voters. The resources the government had at its disposal were considered a major inducement, although again one might have thought the 2023 polls might have given pause for thought.
Since that time the political environment has changed somewhat, although whether Freedom House still believes that given its oil money it can attract enough African voters to make the PPP/C the only viable party in the country and perhaps even corral a two-thirds majority in Parliament is hard to say. It certainly does not appear to show especial anxiety in relation to any element of what was once the traditional opposition; its political nervousness has its origins in an altogether novel development.
As is now customary a host of minuscule parties has suddenly appeared, like flowers sprouting from the desert floor following a rainstorm. Despite the experience of past years when tiny parties created in the immediate penumbra of an election usually lost their deposits and disappeared back into the darkness, the new crop seems undeterred.
It may be because some of their leaders feel they are already known names, and on that basis, therefore, will attract votes. Without having done work over a fairly long time-frame, and in the absence of a party infrastructure and presence in various communities, the odds are that with one exception, they are deluding themselves.
Their situation is compounded by the fact that voters’ confidence in new parties dissolved following the fiasco of the AFC in government and its acquiescence in the attempted rigging of 2020. Then there was the scandal of Dr Asha Kissoon, who deceitfully clung on to a seat in Parliament (and the Deputy Speakership) in defiance of a Joinder agreement. That she was only satisfying her own ambition and not representing her party or constituents was underlined when she joined the PPP/C.
Whatever the situation with minor parties, there has always been a major opposition in this country, even in 2006 and 2011 when the AFC entered Parliament on its own account. In 2020 its coalition with APNU continued past the election loss for a time, before the two split up. Attempts to reestablish the arrangement in the expectation of an election this year failed, not because of policy differences, but primarily over differences about who should be the presidential candidate.
The AFC wanted their leader, Mr Nigel Hughes, while APNU insisted on Mr Aubrey Norton. A proposal for a compromise candidate in the form of Mr Terrence Campbell was also vetoed by Mr Norton’s party. The AFC no longer can claim any Indian support; it is, to all intents and purposes an African party like the PNCR, added to which the small number of uncommitted urban voters it once attracted will have been deterred by the rigging attempt.
Personalities are important in this context, so how will the African voter decide to cast his or her ballot? The question the PPP/C must be pondering is how will the African vote split between these two parties ‒ assuming it does ‒ and whether it too might be able to pick up a number of votes from this demographic. Or will the African turn-out be low?
What can be said is that what was once the traditional opposition is in disarray. Mr Norton has been faced with a number of defections, starting in February this year with former government minister Ms Simona Broomes, who inaugurated the trend for defectors to start their own party. It was called the Assembly for Liberty and Prosperity.
She was followed by Ms Vanessa Kissoon, an important figure in the Linden arm of the party who last year had accused Mr Norton of sexual harassment. She cited personal reasons as having informed her decision. Hard on her heels came a resignation which was not so easy for the leader to brush aside, and this was Amna Ally, a former PNCR General Secretary and government minister, who spoke of concerns about the leadership of the party and the treatment of women.
Following the election date announcement the public learned of the defection from the PNCR of Region Four Chairman Daniel Seeram to the PPP/C. And if that was not enough then came the resignation of MP Geeta Chandan-Edmond and her re-alignment with the governing party. Mr Norton was blasé about it: “It doesn’t affect the party because she carries no one with her,” he said. More puzzling was his assessment that this was a manifestation of the PPP’s weakness.
The departures continued into June. A notable loss was that of shadow foreign minister Ms Amanza Walton-Desir, who announced she was forming a party called Forward Guyana. She had withdrawn from the leadership contest which Mr Norton won last year on the grounds of irregularities in the process. In her wake came the altogether less well-known Ms Natasha Singh Lewis, who spoke of being sidelined and undervalued under the current leadership.
Most recently there was Mr Jermaine Figueira, whom the public knows from his work on the Public Accounts Committee. Among his reasons for the resignation was what he called a “troubling tolerance for rising ethnic antagonism.”
Mr Norton refused to acknowledge problems with the departures: “None of them are heavyweights,” he said dismissively. He seems to be blissfully unaware of the kind of impression about leadership the resignation of so many senior members creates in a voter’s mind.
It is not as if the AFC has been immune to defections. Apart from the loss of two youth leaders, Ms Juretha Fernandes as well as Messrs Sherod Duncan and Deonarine Ramsaroop have defected to APNU. It was subsequently announced that Ms Fernandes would be APNU’s prime ministerial candidate, a position that she had initially been offered during the coalition talks which broke down. The assumption is that Mr Norton hopes she will attract the Indigenous vote.
If all of this chaos is enough to warm the cockles of a PPP heart, they have to face an opposition candidate who is causing them more heartache than APNU, the AFC and all the mini parties put together. This is WIN, led by Mr Azruddin Mohamed, who has broken the mould of new parties, and has made inroads in Indian areas and in a few Indigenous ones. He is, of course an Indian.
Mr Mohamed has claimed that PPP supporters have been organised to clash with him in places like Belle West and Letter Kenny, and that he has been prevented from going to some Indigenous areas. Then there is the strange story of a US lobbying firm employed by the Government of Guyana which targeted Mr Mohamed in a tweet, calling him a puppet of Venezuelan President Maduro. That issue was dealt with in yesterday’s editorial.
It has to be said that Mr Mohamed does not have a clean slate; the allegations against him derive from the US and are no secret. That has not prevented him from being able to form an alliance with ANUG, arguably the best known of the mini-parties which has been around since before the last election and has previously been associated with decency and shared governance. It did, however, produce resignation announcements from its two best-known figures, Messrs Ralph Ramkarran and Timothy Jonas.
Mr Mohamed’s success appears to be founded on his distribution of largesse to poorer groups; he is, after all a very wealthy man. In a society where despite the shiny new infrastructure many people do not feel they are benefiting from the oil resources, tangible gifts mean something.
We will have to wait until September 1st to discover how all these personal realignments in the opposition camp and the entry of a different kind of newcomer have rearranged our political expectations.
Stabroek News
